HOME      ABOUT      ARTICLES      CONTACT      LINKS      CONVERTER
Updated: Sat 17 Apr 2021 11:05 GMT

Tropical Cyclone SEROJA (26S)

Tropical Cyclone SEROJA Forecast Graphic
Tropical Cyclone SEROJA Forecast Track (Joint Typhoon Warning Center)
Tropical Cyclone SEROJA Storm-Centered Infrared Tropical Cyclone SEROJA Storm-Centered Enhanced Infrared Tropical Cyclone SEROJA Storm-Centered Visible

Tropical Cyclone SEROJA Warning Text (JTWC)

WTXS31 PGTW 111500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 26S (SEROJA) WARNING NR 029//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 26S (SEROJA) WARNING NR 029    
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   111200Z --- NEAR 28.3S 114.4E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 135 DEGREES AT 31 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
     POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY A COMBINATION OF 
     SATELLITE, RADAR AND SYNOPTIC DATA
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 28.3S 114.4E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   120000Z --- 32.4S 119.8E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 125 DEG/ 33 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   121200Z --- 36.2S 126.2E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   EXTRATROPICAL
    ---
REMARKS:
111500Z POSITION NEAR 29.3S 115.8E.
11APR21. TROPICAL CYCLONE 26S (SEROJA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 360
NM SOUTH OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 31
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) 
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A WELL DEFINED 10 NM EYE FEATURE JUST 
CROSSING THE SHORELINE NEAR PORT GREGORY, AUSTRALIA AT THE 111200Z 
HOUR. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS FROM THE REGION, THE EIR EYE FEATURE AND 
A WELL-DEFINED RADAR EYE COMBINED TO LEND HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE 
INITIAL POSITION. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 70 KTS WITH 
HIGH CONFIDENCE, HEDGED SLIGHTLY LOWER THAN THE AVERAGE OF MULTI-
AGENCY DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T4.5 (77 KTS) FROM PGTW AND 
APRF, BASED ON ANALYSIS OF SURFACE PRESSURE READINGS NEAR 976 MB 
FROM NEARBY OBSERVATION SITES WHICH SUPPORT AN INTENSITY IN THE 65-
70 KNOT RANGE. PEAK WIND GUSTS OF 65 KTS AT THE GERALDTON AIRPORT 
PROVIDES ADDITIONAL SUPPORT TO THE INITIAL INTENSITY. TC 26S IS 
BEING STEERED RAPIDLY TOWARDS THE SOUTHEAST ALONG THE GRADIENT 
BETWEEN A DEEP-LAYER STR TO THE NORTHEAST AND AN APPROACHING MID-
LATITUDE TROUGH TO THE SOUTHWEST. AS THE SYSTEM RACES SOUTHEAST OVER 
INLAND AUSTRALIA IT IS EXPECTED TO RAPIDLY WEAKEN DUE TO INCREASING 
SHEAR AND TERRAIN INTERACTION. THE SIMULTANEOUS DEVELOPMENT OF DRY 
AIR ENTRAINMENT AND THERMAL ADVECTION WILL SIGNAL THE COMMENCEMENT 
OF EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION (ETT) WITHIN THE NEXT 6-12 HOURS, WITH 
FULL TRANSITION EXPECTED NO LATER THAN TAU 24, LIKELY BY TAU 18, 
ALONG THE COAST OF SOUTHERN AUSTRALIA. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN 
VERY GOOD AGREEMENT, LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE JTWC FORECAST 
TRACK. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON 
WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI. THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR 
SIGNS OF REGENERATION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 111200Z IS 
28 FEET.//
NNNN

Tropical Cyclone SEROJA JMV 3.0 Data (JTWC)

WTXS51 PGTW 111500    
WARNING    ATCG MIL 26S SIO 210411133100
2021041112 26S SEROJA     029  01 135 31 SATL RADR SYNP 020
T000 283S 1144E 070 R064 030 NE QD 025 SE QD 020 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 065 NE QD 060 SE QD 030 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 115 NE QD 100 SE QD 055 SW QD 090 NW QD 
T012 324S 1198E 050 
T024 362S 1262E 030 
AMP
    012HR BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
    024HR EXTRATROPICAL
SUBJ:  TROPICAL CYCLONE 26S (SEROJA) WARNING NR 029    
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 26S (SEROJA) WARNING NR 029    
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   111200Z --- NEAR 28.3S 114.4E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 135 DEGREES AT 31 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
     POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY A COMBINATION OF 
     SATELLITE, RADAR AND SYNOPTIC DATA
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 28.3S 114.4E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   120000Z --- 32.4S 119.8E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 125 DEG/ 33 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   121200Z --- 36.2S 126.2E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   EXTRATROPICAL
    ---
REMARKS:
111500Z POSITION NEAR 29.3S 115.8E.
11APR21. TROPICAL CYCLONE 26S (SEROJA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 360
NM SOUTH OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 31
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A WELL DEFINED 10 NM EYE FEATURE JUST CROSSING THE SHORELINE NEAR PORT GREGORY, AUSTRALIA AT THE 111200Z HOUR. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS FROM THE REGION, THE EIR EYE FEATURE AND A WELL-DEFINED RADAR EYE COMBINED TO LEND HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE INITIAL POSITION. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 70 KTS WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE, HEDGED SLIGHTLY LOWER THAN THE AVERAGE OF MULTI-AGENCY DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T4.5 (77 KTS) FROM PGTW AND APRF, BASED ON ANALYSIS OF SURFACE PRESSURE READINGS NEAR 976 MB FROM NEARBY OBSERVATION SITES WHICH SUPPORT AN INTENSITY IN THE 65-70 KNOT RANGE. PEAK WIND GUSTS OF 65 KTS AT THE GERALDTON AIRPORT PROVIDES ADDITIONAL SUPPORT TO THE INITIAL INTENSITY. TC 26S IS BEING STEERED RAPIDLY TOWARDS THE SOUTHEAST ALONG THE GRADIENT BETWEEN A DEEP-LAYER STR TO THE NORTHEAST AND AN APPROACHING MID-LATITUDE TROUGH TO THE SOUTHWEST. AS THE SYSTEM RACES SOUTHEAST OVER INLAND AUSTRALIA IT IS EXPECTED TO RAPIDLY WEAKEN DUE TO INCREASING SHEAR AND TERRAIN INTERACTION. THE SIMULTANEOUS DEVELOPMENT OF DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT AND THERMAL ADVECTION WILL SIGNAL THE COMMENCEMENT OF EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION (ETT) WITHIN THE NEXT 6-12 HOURS, WITH FULL TRANSITION EXPECTED NO LATER THAN TAU 24, LIKELY BY TAU 18, ALONG THE COAST OF SOUTHERN AUSTRALIA. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT, LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI. THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 111200Z IS 28 FEET.//
2621040112  93S1219E  25
2621040118  96S1218E  25
2621040200 100S1219E  20
2621040206 104S1222E  20
2621040212 110S1223E  25
2621040218 113S1227E  25
2621040300 113S1230E  25
2621040306 111S1232E  25
2621040312 107S1238E  30
2621040318 107S1240E  30
2621040400 105S1241E  30
2621040406 101S1239E  30
2621040412 104S1232E  35
2621040418 105S1229E  45
2621040500 108S1224E  45
2621040506 110S1219E  50
2621040506 110S1219E  50
2621040512 111S1214E  50
2621040512 111S1214E  50
2621040518 113S1206E  50
2621040518 113S1206E  50
2621040600 114S1200E  55
2621040600 114S1200E  55
2621040606 116S1197E  50
2621040606 116S1197E  50
2621040612 119S1193E  50
2621040612 119S1193E  50
2621040618 125S1189E  45
2621040700 133S1180E  45
2621040706 142S1168E  45
2621040712 151S1156E  45
2621040718 158S1140E  45
2621040800 163S1125E  55
2621040800 163S1125E  55
2621040806 171S1119E  55
2621040806 171S1119E  55
2621040812 175S1115E  50
2621040812 175S1115E  50
2621040818 184S1110E  45
2621040900 190S1101E  45
2621040906 196S1095E  55
2621040912 200S1089E  60
2621040912 200S1089E  60
2621040918 203S1085E  60
2621040918 203S1085E  60
2621041000 206S1082E  55
2621041000 206S1082E  55
2621041006 209S1082E  60
2621041006 209S1082E  60
2621041012 216S1088E  65
2621041012 216S1088E  65
2621041018 227S1096E  65
2621041018 227S1096E  65
2621041018 227S1096E  65
2621041100 242S1105E  65
2621041100 242S1105E  65
2621041100 242S1105E  65
2621041106 261S1120E  70
2621041106 261S1120E  70
2621041106 261S1120E  70
2621041112 283S1144E  70
2621041112 283S1144E  70
2621041112 283S1144E  70
NNNN

Radar

Satellite Imagery

Satellite Animations