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Updated: Fri 18 Jun 2021 09:37 GMT

East Pacific Tropical Cyclone Tracking

Graphical Tropical Weather Outlook
Graphic provided by the National Hurricane Center
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Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook


000
ABPZ20 KNHC 180535
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 PM PDT Thu Jun 17 2021

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Recent satellite-derived winds indicate that the area of low
pressure located about a couple hundred miles south of Acapulco,
Mexico is becoming better defined. In addition, shower and
thunderstorm activity is gradually becoming better organized. A
tropical depression is expected to form later this morning while the
system moves west-northwestward at 5 to 10 mph. Regardless of
development, heavy rains are likely over coastal sections of the
Mexican states of Oaxaca, Guerrero, Michoacan, Colima, and Jalisco
during the next few days, which could cause life-threatening flash
floods and mudslides. Interests in these areas should monitor the
progress of this system through the weekend, and tropical storm
watches and warnings could be needed for a portion of the Mexican
coastline later today.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...near 100 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...near 100 percent.

$$
Forecaster Papin/Blake

Summary for Tropical Depression Four-E (EP4/EP042021)

...A NEW TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS OFF THE COAST OF MEXICO... ...TROPICAL STORM WATCHES ISSUED FOR THE MEXICAN COAST... As of 4:00 AM CDT Fri Jun 18 the center of Four-E was located near 14.4, -101.6 with movement WNW at 8 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1005 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.

Tropical Depression Four-E Public Advisory Number 1

Issued at 400 AM CDT Fri Jun 18 2021

000
WTPZ34 KNHC 180859
TCPEP4
 
BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Four-E Advisory Number   1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP042021
400 AM CDT Fri Jun 18 2021
 
...A NEW TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS OFF THE COAST OF MEXICO...
...TROPICAL STORM WATCHES ISSUED FOR THE MEXICAN COAST...
 
 
SUMMARY OF 400 AM CDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.4N 101.6W
ABOUT 365 MI...585 KM SSE OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
ABOUT 250 MI...405 KM S OF LAZARO CARDENAS MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
 
The government of Mexico has issued a tropical storm watch from Cabo
Corrientes southward to Lazaro Cardenas.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
 
A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
*Cabo Corrientes to Lazaro Cardenas
 
A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.
 
For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 400 AM CDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Four-E
was located near latitude 14.4 North, longitude 101.6 West. The
depression is moving toward the west-northwest near 8 mph (13 km/h),
and this forward motion is expected to continue with a turn to the
northwest and north-northwest over the next 24 h.
 
Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
Strengthening is forecast over the next 36 h and the depression is
forecast to become a tropical storm later today.
 
The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches).
 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND:  Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area
by late Saturday.
 
RAINFALL: Tropical Depression Four-E will produce heavy rains over
coastal sections of the Mexican states of Oaxaca, Guerrero,
Michoacan, Colima, Jalisco, and Nayarit during the next few days,
with rainfall totals of 5 to 10 inches expected with isolated
maximum amounts of 15 inches possible. As a result, life-threatening
flash flooding and mudslides may occur.
 
SURF:  Swells generated by the depression will affect portions of
the southwest coast of Mexico during the next few days. These
swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions.  Please consult products from your local weather office.
 
 
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1000 AM CDT.
 
$$
Forecaster Papin/Blake
 

Tropical Depression Four-E Forecast Advisory Number 1

Issued at 0900 UTC FRI JUN 18 2021

000
WTPZ24 KNHC 180858
TCMEP4
 
TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP042021
0900 UTC FRI JUN 18 2021
 
CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...
 
THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FROM CABO
CORRIENTES SOUTHWARD TO LAZARO CARDENAS.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
 
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
*CABO CORRIENTES TO LAZARO CARDENAS
 
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.
 
TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.4N 101.6W AT 18/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  30 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT   7 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  30 KT WITH GUSTS TO  40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.4N 101.6W AT 18/0900Z
AT 18/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.3N 101.3W
 
FORECAST VALID 18/1800Z 14.8N 102.5W
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT... 50NE  20SE   0SW  40NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 19/0600Z 15.7N 103.5W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT... 60NE  50SE  30SW  50NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 19/1800Z 17.5N 104.5W
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE  20SE   0SW   0NW.
34 KT... 60NE  50SE  30SW  40NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 20/0600Z 20.1N 105.2W...INLAND
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT... 30NE  30SE  20SW  20NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 20/1800Z 23.1N 105.9W...INLAND
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT...  0NE   0SE  20SW   0NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 21/0600Z 25.4N 106.5W...POST-TROP/INLAND
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 22/0600Z...DISSIPATED
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.4N 101.6W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 18/1500Z
 
$$
FORECASTER PAPIN/BLAKE
 
 

Tropical Depression Four-E Forecast Discussion Number 1

Issued at 400 AM CDT Fri Jun 18 2021

000
WTPZ44 KNHC 180859
TCDEP4
 
Tropical Depression Four-E Discussion Number   1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP042021
400 AM CDT Fri Jun 18 2021
 
Over the past 12 h convection has blossomed and has become better
organized over the broad low we have been monitoring a couple
hundred miles to the south of Acapulco, Mexico. Overnight
scatterometer-derived winds indicated that the system has acquired
a closed circulation with max winds in the northeast quadrant of 30
kt. The most recent 06z Dvorak satellite estimates were T1.5/25 kt
from TAFB and T2.0/30 kt from SAB. Since that time, deep cold
convection has continued to increase near the estimated center with
improved banding both the north and southwest quadrants. Due to
this continued improvement in satellite imagery, this system is
being upgraded to a 30-kt tropical depression this advisory.
 
Environmental conditions appear to be favorable for additional
intensification over the next 24-36 h as the storm reaches the
Mexican coastline with high mid-level relative humidity, only light
to moderate vertical wind shear, and very warm sea-surface
temperatures between 29 to 30 C. Thus the latest NHC forecast
indicates at least steady intensification, and TD4-E could become a
strong tropical storm as it approaches the Mexican coastline. The
NHC intensity forecast is in good agreement with the HFIP corrected
consensus (HCCA) guidance.
 
The estimated current motion of this depression is at 285/7 kt.
Currently the system is being steered by a narrow mid-level ridge
north of Mexico. However, this ridge is forecast to weaken and allow
the storm to gain latitude over the next 24-36 h. The latest NHC
forecast takes the depression to the coast of Mexico by late
Saturday. This forecast is in fairly good agreement with the latest
guidance and lies closest to the most recent ECMWF run, though
spread remains between models that keep the system just off the
Mexican coast like the UKMET versus the HWRF and GFS models which
take the storm further east and inland over Mexico sooner. Given
this track forecast, the government of Mexico has issued a tropical
storm watch for the coast of Mexico from Cabo Corrientes southward
to Lazaro Cardenas.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  18/0900Z 14.4N 101.6W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  18/1800Z 14.8N 102.5W   35 KT  40 MPH
 24H  19/0600Z 15.7N 103.5W   45 KT  50 MPH
 36H  19/1800Z 17.5N 104.5W   55 KT  65 MPH
 48H  20/0600Z 20.1N 105.2W   45 KT  50 MPH...INLAND
 60H  20/1800Z 23.1N 105.9W   35 KT  40 MPH...INLAND
 72H  21/0600Z 25.4N 106.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
 96H  22/0600Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
Forecaster Papin/Blake
 

Tropical Depression Four-E Wind Speed Probabilities Number 1

Issued at 0900 UTC FRI JUN 18 2021

000
FOPZ14 KNHC 180859
PWSEP4
                                                                    
TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR-E WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER   1      
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP042021               
0900 UTC FRI JUN 18 2021                                            
                                                                    
AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR-E WAS LOCATED NEAR  
LATITUDE 14.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 101.6 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED   
WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H.                               
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   PACIFIC  DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME     
                                                                    
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS                 
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...                                  
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...                                  
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...                                  
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE               
    OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)               
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        06Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY              
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                 
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
CABO SAN LUCAS 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
SAN JOSE CABO  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
CULIACAN       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)
 
ISLAS MARIAS   34  X   X( X)   2( 2)   9(11)  18(29)   X(29)   X(29)
ISLAS MARIAS   50  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   6( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)
ISLAS MARIAS   64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)
 
MAZATLAN       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)  17(19)   X(19)   X(19)
MAZATLAN       50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
SAN BLAS       34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   5( 6)  12(18)   X(18)   X(18)
SAN BLAS       50  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
P VALLARTA     34  X   X( X)   1( 1)  19(20)   9(29)   X(29)   X(29)
P VALLARTA     50  X   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   4( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)
 
15N 105W       34  X  10(10)   6(16)   X(16)   X(16)   X(16)   X(16)
 
BARRA NAVIDAD  34  X   X( X)   3( 3)  29(32)   2(34)   X(34)   X(34)
BARRA NAVIDAD  50  X   X( X)   X( X)   7( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)
 
MANZANILLO     34  X   1( 1)  19(20)  30(50)   X(50)   X(50)   X(50)
MANZANILLO     50  X   X( X)   2( 2)   9(11)   X(11)   X(11)   X(11)
MANZANILLO     64  X   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)
 
L CARDENAS     34  X   3( 3)   7(10)   1(11)   X(11)   X(11)   X(11)
 
ZIHUATANEJO    34  X   3( 3)   3( 6)   1( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)
 
15N 100W       34  X   2( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER PAPIN/BLAKE                                              
      

Tropical Depression Four-E Graphics

Tropical Depression Four-E 5-Day Uncertainty Track Image
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 18 Jun 2021 09:00:59 GMT

Tropical Depression Four-E 34-Knot Wind Speed Probabilities
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 18 Jun 2021 09:28:26 GMT

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