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Updated: Wed 12 Aug 2020 03:02 GMT
Graphical Tropical Weather Outlook
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Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook


000
ABPZ20 KNHC 112332
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 PM PDT Tue Aug 11 2020

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Elida, located a few hundred miles west of the southern tip of the
Baja California peninsula.

Recent satellite wind data indicate that the area of low pressure
located about 1300 miles southwest of the southern tip of the Baja
California peninsula remains elongated. The associated shower and
thunderstorm activity is currently disorganized, but environmental
conditions are expected to be conducive for additional development,
and a tropical depression is likely to form within the next few
days. The system is not expected to move as quickly westward as
originally forecast, and a slower westward to west-northwestward
motion is now anticipated over the next several days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.

A large area of disturbed weather associated with a trough of low
pressure extends from just west of the Gulf of Tehuantepec
southwestward for several hundred miles. Environmental conditions
appear conducive for gradual development over the next several days,
and this system will likely become a tropical depression by late
this week while it moves generally west-northwestward away from the
coast of southwest Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.

Another area of low pressure is expected to form in a few days over
the far eastern portion of the basin to the south of the coast of
Central America. Conditions are expected to be conducive for
development, and a tropical depression could form this weekend while
it moves generally west-northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent.

Another area of disturbed weather is forecast to form over the far
western portion of the eastern Pacific basin within the next couple
of days. Some subsequent gradual development of this system is
possible later this week while the system moves slowly westward
into the central Pacific basin.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.

$$
Forecaster Brown

Summary for Hurricane Elida (EP4/EP092020)

...ELIDA BEGINS TO WEAKEN... As of 8:00 PM PDT Tue Aug 11 the center of Elida was located near 22.5, -116.5 with movement WNW at 15 mph. The minimum central pressure was 980 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 85 mph.

Hurricane Elida Public Advisory Number 13

Issued at 800 PM PDT Tue Aug 11 2020

000
WTPZ34 KNHC 120235
TCPEP4
 
BULLETIN
Hurricane Elida Advisory Number  13
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP092020
800 PM PDT Tue Aug 11 2020
 
...ELIDA BEGINS TO WEAKEN...
 
 
SUMMARY OF 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...22.5N 116.5W
ABOUT 420 MI...680 KM W OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...980 MB...28.94 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 PM PDT (0300 UTC), the center of Hurricane Elida was located
near latitude 22.5 North, longitude 116.5 West. Elida is moving
toward the west-northwest near 15 mph (24 km/h), and this general
motion should continue with some decrease in forward speed through
Wednesday.  A turn toward the northwest is expected on Wednesday 
night and Thursday.
 
Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 85 mph (140 
km/h) with higher gusts. Rapid weakening is expected during the 
next day or so as Elida moves over colder water, and the 
cyclone is expected to weaken to a tropical storm on Wednesday
and degenerate to remnant low on Thursday.
 
Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 15 miles (30 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles
(110 km).
 
The estimated minimum central pressure is 980 mb (28.94 inches).
 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF:  Swells generated by Elida are expected to affect portions of
the coast of west-central Mexico and the southern Baja California
peninsula during the next day or two.  These swells are likely to
cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.  Please
consult products from your local weather office.
 
 
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 200 AM PDT.
 
$$
Forecaster Brown
 

Hurricane Elida Forecast Advisory Number 13

Issued at 0300 UTC WED AUG 12 2020

000
WTPZ24 KNHC 120235
TCMEP4
 
HURRICANE ELIDA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  13
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP092020
0300 UTC WED AUG 12 2020
 
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.
 
HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.5N 116.5W AT 12/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  25 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT  13 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  980 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  75 KT WITH GUSTS TO  90 KT.
64 KT....... 15NE  10SE  10SW  15NW.
50 KT....... 30NE  30SE  20SW  30NW.
34 KT....... 60NE  50SE  40SW  60NW.
12 FT SEAS..120NE 150SE 120SW 120NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.5N 116.5W AT 12/0300Z
AT 12/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 22.2N 116.0W
 
FORECAST VALID 12/1200Z 23.2N 118.2W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
64 KT... 15NE  10SE   0SW  15NW.
50 KT... 30NE  20SE  20SW  30NW.
34 KT... 60NE  50SE  30SW  60NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 13/0000Z 24.1N 119.7W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE  20SE   0SW  20NW.
34 KT... 60NE  50SE  20SW  60NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 13/1200Z 25.1N 120.8W...POST-TROPICAL
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT... 50NE  40SE  20SW  50NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 14/0000Z 26.2N 121.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.
 
FORECAST VALID 14/1200Z 27.5N 122.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  20 KT...GUSTS  30 KT.
 
FORECAST VALID 15/0000Z...DISSIPATED
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 22.5N 116.5W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 12/0900Z
 
$$
FORECASTER BROWN
 
 

Hurricane Elida Forecast Discussion Number 13

Issued at 800 PM PDT Tue Aug 11 2020

000
WTPZ44 KNHC 120236
TCDEP4
 
Hurricane Elida Discussion Number  13
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP092020
800 PM PDT Tue Aug 11 2020
 
Recent infrared satellite imagery shows that the cloud tops 
associated with the tropical cyclone have gradually warmed, 
especially over the southwestern portion of the circulation.  A 
timely 2357 UTC SSMIS microwave overpass indicated that the 
southern portion of the eye has eroded and that the low-level 
center is located a little south of recent position estimates 
using visible satellite imagery.  The latest subjective and 
objective Dvorak satellite estimates range from about 60-90 kt.  
The advisory intensity has been set at 75 kt, which is in best 
agreement with the latest UW/CIMSS SATCON estimate, and is a blend 
of the of the latest Dvorak CI numbers from TAFB and SAB.

The cyclone has already crossed the 26C isotherm and is headed 
toward significantly cooler waters.  In addition, the vertical wind 
shear is predicted to increase slightly over the next 12-24 hours. 
These negative environmental factors should lead to rapid weakening 
over the next 24 to 36 hours.  Elida is forecast to weaken to a 
tropical storm on Wednesday, and it should degenerate into a 
post-tropical cyclone on Thursday when it loses its deep 
convection.  The new NHC intensity forecast essentially follows the 
trend of the previous advisory, and is in good agreement with the 
various consensus aids. 

Elida continues moving west-northwestward at about 13 kt.  The 
cyclone should remain on this general heading through Wednesday as 
it moves around the southwestern portion of a mid-level ridge 
centered over the southwestern United States.  After that time, a 
trough located well west of southern California is expected to 
weaken the western portion of the ridge, causing Elida to slow down 
and turn northwestward.  The dynamical model guidance is in good 
agreement on this scenario, and no significant change to the 
previous forecast was required. 

 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  12/0300Z 22.5N 116.5W   75 KT  85 MPH
 12H  12/1200Z 23.2N 118.2W   65 KT  75 MPH
 24H  13/0000Z 24.1N 119.7W   50 KT  60 MPH
 36H  13/1200Z 25.1N 120.8W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
 48H  14/0000Z 26.2N 121.7W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 60H  14/1200Z 27.5N 122.6W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  15/0000Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
Forecaster Brown
 

Hurricane Elida Wind Speed Probabilities Number 13

Issued at 0300 UTC WED AUG 12 2020

000
FOPZ14 KNHC 120236
PWSEP4
                                                                    
HURRICANE ELIDA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER  13                 
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP092020               
0300 UTC WED AUG 12 2020                                            
                                                                    
AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE ELIDA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE    
22.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 116.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 
75 KTS...85 MPH...140 KM/H.                                         
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   PACIFIC  DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME     
                                                                    
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS                 
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...                                  
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...                                  
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...                                  
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE               
    OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)               
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        00Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY              
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                 
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
25N 120W       34  1  33(34)  18(52)   1(53)   X(53)   X(53)   X(53)
25N 120W       50  X   5( 5)   9(14)   X(14)   X(14)   X(14)   X(14)
25N 120W       64  X   X( X)   2( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)
 
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER BROWN                                                    

Hurricane Elida Graphics

Hurricane Elida 5-Day Uncertainty Track Image
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 12 Aug 2020 02:37:36 GMT

Hurricane Elida 34-Knot Wind Speed Probabilities
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 12 Aug 2020 02:37:36 GMT

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