000 WTPZ34 KNHC 120235 TCPEP4 BULLETIN Hurricane Elida Advisory Number 13 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP092020 800 PM PDT Tue Aug 11 2020 ...ELIDA BEGINS TO WEAKEN... SUMMARY OF 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...22.5N 116.5W ABOUT 420 MI...680 KM W OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...980 MB...28.94 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 800 PM PDT (0300 UTC), the center of Hurricane Elida was located near latitude 22.5 North, longitude 116.5 West. Elida is moving toward the west-northwest near 15 mph (24 km/h), and this general motion should continue with some decrease in forward speed through Wednesday. A turn toward the northwest is expected on Wednesday night and Thursday. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 85 mph (140 km/h) with higher gusts. Rapid weakening is expected during the next day or so as Elida moves over colder water, and the cyclone is expected to weaken to a tropical storm on Wednesday and degenerate to remnant low on Thursday. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 15 miles (30 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 980 mb (28.94 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- SURF: Swells generated by Elida are expected to affect portions of the coast of west-central Mexico and the southern Baja California peninsula during the next day or two. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 200 AM PDT. $$ Forecaster Brown
000 WTPZ24 KNHC 120235 TCMEP4 HURRICANE ELIDA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 13 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092020 0300 UTC WED AUG 12 2020 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.5N 116.5W AT 12/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 13 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 980 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 75 KT WITH GUSTS TO 90 KT. 64 KT....... 15NE 10SE 10SW 15NW. 50 KT....... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT....... 60NE 50SE 40SW 60NW. 12 FT SEAS..120NE 150SE 120SW 120NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.5N 116.5W AT 12/0300Z AT 12/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 22.2N 116.0W FORECAST VALID 12/1200Z 23.2N 118.2W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 10SE 0SW 15NW. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 60NE 50SE 30SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 13/0000Z 24.1N 119.7W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 60NE 50SE 20SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 13/1200Z 25.1N 120.8W...POST-TROPICAL MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 40SE 20SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 14/0000Z 26.2N 121.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 14/1200Z 27.5N 122.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 15/0000Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 22.5N 116.5W NEXT ADVISORY AT 12/0900Z $$ FORECASTER BROWN
000 WTPZ44 KNHC 120236 TCDEP4 Hurricane Elida Discussion Number 13 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP092020 800 PM PDT Tue Aug 11 2020 Recent infrared satellite imagery shows that the cloud tops associated with the tropical cyclone have gradually warmed, especially over the southwestern portion of the circulation. A timely 2357 UTC SSMIS microwave overpass indicated that the southern portion of the eye has eroded and that the low-level center is located a little south of recent position estimates using visible satellite imagery. The latest subjective and objective Dvorak satellite estimates range from about 60-90 kt. The advisory intensity has been set at 75 kt, which is in best agreement with the latest UW/CIMSS SATCON estimate, and is a blend of the of the latest Dvorak CI numbers from TAFB and SAB. The cyclone has already crossed the 26C isotherm and is headed toward significantly cooler waters. In addition, the vertical wind shear is predicted to increase slightly over the next 12-24 hours. These negative environmental factors should lead to rapid weakening over the next 24 to 36 hours. Elida is forecast to weaken to a tropical storm on Wednesday, and it should degenerate into a post-tropical cyclone on Thursday when it loses its deep convection. The new NHC intensity forecast essentially follows the trend of the previous advisory, and is in good agreement with the various consensus aids. Elida continues moving west-northwestward at about 13 kt. The cyclone should remain on this general heading through Wednesday as it moves around the southwestern portion of a mid-level ridge centered over the southwestern United States. After that time, a trough located well west of southern California is expected to weaken the western portion of the ridge, causing Elida to slow down and turn northwestward. The dynamical model guidance is in good agreement on this scenario, and no significant change to the previous forecast was required. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 12/0300Z 22.5N 116.5W 75 KT 85 MPH 12H 12/1200Z 23.2N 118.2W 65 KT 75 MPH 24H 13/0000Z 24.1N 119.7W 50 KT 60 MPH 36H 13/1200Z 25.1N 120.8W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 48H 14/0000Z 26.2N 121.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 14/1200Z 27.5N 122.6W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 15/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Brown
000 FOPZ14 KNHC 120236 PWSEP4 HURRICANE ELIDA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 13 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092020 0300 UTC WED AUG 12 2020 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE ELIDA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 22.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 116.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 75 KTS...85 MPH...140 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 25N 120W 34 1 33(34) 18(52) 1(53) X(53) X(53) X(53) 25N 120W 50 X 5( 5) 9(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) 25N 120W 64 X X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) $$ FORECASTER BROWN
COPYRIGHT ©1995-2020 JONATHAN EDWARDS. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED. PORTIONS COPYRIGHT THEIR RESPECTIVE OWNERS. REPUBLICATION OR REDISTRIBUTION OF CYCLOSTORM CONTENT, INCLUDING BY FRAMING OR SIMILAR MEANS, IS EXPRESSLY PROHIBITED WITHOUT THE PRIOR WRITTEN CONSENT OF JONATHAN EDWARDS. THE CYCLOSTORM LOGO AND THE WORDS "WATCHING THE HURRICANE ZONE" IS A TRADE MARK OF JONATHAN EDWARDS. JONATHAN EDWARDS SHALL NOT BE LIABLE FOR ANY ERRORS OR DELAYS IN CONTENT, OR FOR ANY ACTIONS TAKEN IN RELIANCE THEREON.