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Updated: Tue 22 Sep 2020 16:33 GMT
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Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook


000
ABPZ20 KNHC 221119
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 AM PDT Tue Sep 22 2020

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Lowell, located several hundred miles southwest of the
southern tip of the Baja California peninsula.

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

$$
Forecaster Stewart

Summary for Tropical Storm Lowell (EP2/EP172020)

...LOWELL STRENGTHENS SLIGHTLY... As of 8:00 AM PDT Tue Sep 22 the center of Lowell was located near 18.4, -116.6 with movement WNW at 13 mph. The minimum central pressure was 999 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 50 mph.

Tropical Storm Lowell Public Advisory Number 8

Issued at 800 AM PDT Tue Sep 22 2020

000
WTPZ32 KNHC 221443
TCPEP2
 
BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Lowell Advisory Number   8
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP172020
800 AM PDT Tue Sep 22 2020
 
...LOWELL STRENGTHENS SLIGHTLY...
 
 
SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.4N 116.6W
ABOUT 535 MI...855 KM SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 AM PDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Lowell was
located near latitude 18.4 North, longitude 116.6 West. Lowell is
moving toward the west-northwest near 13 mph (20 km/h), and this
general motion is expected to continue through Wednesday, followed
by a turn toward the west.
 
Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts.
Slow strengthening is forecast during the next day or so. Little 
change in strength is expected Wednesday night through Thursday 
night. 
 
Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km)
from the center.
 
The estimated minimum central pressure is 999 mb (29.50 inches).
 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None
 
 
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 200 PM PDT.
 
$$
Forecaster Latto
 

Tropical Storm Lowell Forecast Advisory Number 8

Issued at 1500 UTC TUE SEP 22 2020

000
WTPZ22 KNHC 221443
TCMEP2
 
TROPICAL STORM LOWELL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   8
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP172020
1500 UTC TUE SEP 22 2020
 
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.
 
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.4N 116.6W AT 22/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  60 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT  11 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  999 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  45 KT WITH GUSTS TO  55 KT.
34 KT....... 60NE  90SE   0SW   0NW.
12 FT SEAS..150NE 120SE   0SW   0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.4N 116.6W AT 22/1500Z
AT 22/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.2N 116.1W
 
FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z 19.0N 118.2W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT... 70NE  70SE   0SW  30NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z 19.6N 120.0W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE   0SE   0SW   0NW.
34 KT... 70NE  70SE   0SW  50NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 24/0000Z 20.1N 121.8W
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE   0SE   0SW  30NW.
34 KT... 70NE  60SE  50SW  70NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 24/1200Z 20.4N 123.4W
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE  20SE   0SW  30NW.
34 KT... 80NE  60SE  50SW  80NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 25/0000Z 20.5N 125.2W
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE  20SE   0SW  30NW.
34 KT... 80NE  60SE  50SW  80NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 25/1200Z 20.6N 127.0W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE  20SE   0SW  30NW.
34 KT... 80NE  60SE  50SW  80NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 26/1200Z 20.6N 131.0W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 27/1200Z 20.6N 135.5W
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.4N 116.6W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 22/2100Z
 
$$
FORECASTER LATTO
 
 

Tropical Storm Lowell Forecast Discussion Number 8

Issued at 800 AM PDT Tue Sep 22 2020

000
WTPZ42 KNHC 221443
TCDEP2
 
Tropical Storm Lowell Discussion Number   8
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP172020
800 AM PDT Tue Sep 22 2020
 
Lowell's satellite appearance has improved slightly over the past
several hours, with the mass of deep convection becoming a little
more symmetrical. However, the center still appears to be near the
northeastern edge of this convection. A blend of the latest
satellite intensity estimates from both TAFB and SAB suggest that
the cyclone has strengthened, and the initial intensity has been
increased to 45 kt. The north-northeasterly shear is expected to
persist for the next few days, and the cyclone is only expected to
remain over waters warmer than 26 degrees C for the 24-36 h.
Therefore, only some slow strengthening is expected during the
next day or so. At around 72 h, Lowell is expected to begin moving
over waters of around 25 degrees C while entering a drier and more
stable airmass. These conditions should cause the cyclone to weaken.
Late in the forecast period, model guidance suggests that Lowell
will encounter strong westerly wind shear. There is a possibility
that the cyclone could lose its deep convection once that shear sets
in, and although the latest advisory does not indicate it, Lowell
could degenerate into a remnant low by the end of the 5-day
forecast period. The latest NHC intensity forecast is near the
corrected consensus HCCA.
 
The storm is estimated to be moving 290/11 kt, on the southern side
of a subtropical ridge. This motion should continue through
Wednesday, followed by a turn to the west as the ridge changes its
orientation slightly.  The latest NHC track forecast is near the
previous one through 24 h and is only a little north of it
thereafter due to a shift in the track guidance.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  22/1500Z 18.4N 116.6W   45 KT  50 MPH
 12H  23/0000Z 19.0N 118.2W   45 KT  50 MPH
 24H  23/1200Z 19.6N 120.0W   50 KT  60 MPH
 36H  24/0000Z 20.1N 121.8W   55 KT  65 MPH
 48H  24/1200Z 20.4N 123.4W   55 KT  65 MPH
 60H  25/0000Z 20.5N 125.2W   55 KT  65 MPH
 72H  25/1200Z 20.6N 127.0W   50 KT  60 MPH
 96H  26/1200Z 20.6N 131.0W   40 KT  45 MPH
120H  27/1200Z 20.6N 135.5W   35 KT  40 MPH
 
$$
Forecaster Latto
 

Tropical Storm Lowell Wind Speed Probabilities Number 8

Issued at 1500 UTC TUE SEP 22 2020

000
FOPZ12 KNHC 221443
PWSEP2
                                                                    
TROPICAL STORM LOWELL WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER   8           
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP172020               
1500 UTC TUE SEP 22 2020                                            
                                                                    
AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM LOWELL WAS LOCATED NEAR       
LATITUDE 18.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 116.6 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED   
WINDS NEAR 45 KTS...50 MPH...85 KM/H.                               
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   PACIFIC  DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME     
                                                                    
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS                 
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...                                  
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...                                  
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...                                  
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE               
    OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)               
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        12Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY              
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                 
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
20N 120W       34  1  54(55)  19(74)   X(74)   X(74)   X(74)   X(74)
20N 120W       50  X  17(17)  11(28)   X(28)   X(28)   X(28)   X(28)
20N 120W       64  X   3( 3)   3( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)
 
20N 125W       34  X   1( 1)   4( 5)  20(25)  33(58)   1(59)   X(59)
20N 125W       50  X   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)  18(22)   1(23)   X(23)
20N 125W       64  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   5( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)
 
25N 125W       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)   1( 5)   X( 5)
 
20N 130W       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   7( 7)  18(25)   2(27)
20N 130W       50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   5( 6)   X( 6)
20N 130W       64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)
 
20N 135W       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   9(12)
 
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER LATTO                                                    

Tropical Storm Lowell Graphics

Tropical Storm Lowell 5-Day Uncertainty Track Image
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 22 Sep 2020 14:46:01 GMT

Tropical Storm Lowell 34-Knot Wind Speed Probabilities
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 22 Sep 2020 15:47:58 GMT

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