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Updated: Fri 18 Jun 2021 09:02 GMT

Atlantic Basin Tropical Cyclone Tracking

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Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook


000
ABNT20 KNHC 180514
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 AM EDT Fri Jun 18 2021

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Potential
Tropical Cyclone Three, located over the southwestern Gulf of
Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

&&

Public Advisories on Potential Tropical Cyclone Three are issued
under WMO header WTNT33 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPAT3.
Forecast/Advisories on Potential Tropical Cyclone Three are issued
under WMO header WTNT23 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMAT3.

$$
Forecaster Blake

Summary for Potential Tropical Cyclone Three (AT3/AL032021)

...POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE THREE EXPECTED TO BRING HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLOODING TO THE NORTHERN GULF COAST STARTING LATER TODAY... As of 4:00 AM CDT Fri Jun 18 the center of Three was located near 25.2, -91.5 with movement N at 14 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1007 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.

Potential Tropical Cyclone Three Public Advisory Number 3

Issued at 400 AM CDT Fri Jun 18 2021

000
WTNT33 KNHC 180854
TCPAT3
 
BULLETIN
Potential Tropical Cyclone Three Advisory Number   3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL032021
400 AM CDT Fri Jun 18 2021
 
...POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE THREE EXPECTED TO BRING HEAVY 
RAINFALL AND FLOODING TO THE NORTHERN GULF COAST STARTING LATER 
TODAY...
 
 
SUMMARY OF 400 AM CDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...25.2N 91.5W
ABOUT 310 MI...500 KM S OF MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA
ABOUT 435 MI...695 KM SSW OF MOBILE ALABAMA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
 
The Tropical Storm Warning has been extended eastward for the
Florida Panhandle from the Alabama/Florida border to the
Okaloosa/Walton County line.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
 
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Intracoastal City Louisiana to the Okaloosa/Walton County line.
* Lake Pontchartrain, Lake Maurepas, and Metropolitan New Orleans
 
A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within 12
to 24 hours.
 
Interests elsewhere along the northern Gulf Coast should monitor
the progress of this system.
 
For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 400 AM CDT (0900 UTC), the poorly defined disturbance was 
centered near latitude 25.2 North, longitude 91.5 West. The system 
is moving toward the north near 14 mph (22 km/h), and this 
general motion is expected for the next day or so.  On the forecast 
track, the system will approach the north-central Gulf Coast 
tonight or early Saturday.  A slow northeastward motion across the 
southeastern United States is likely after landfall through the 
weekend.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
Some strengthening is forecast, and a subtropical or tropical storm 
is likely to form over the west-central or northwestern Gulf of 
Mexico later today.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.
 
The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches), 
based on observations from NOAA buoy 42001.
 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Potential Tropical Cyclone Three can be found in
the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3, 
WMO header WTNT43 KNHC, and on the web at 
www.huricanes.gov/graphics_at3.shtml?key_messages.
 
RAINFALL: Rainfall totals of 4 to 8 inches with isolated maximum 
amounts of 12 inches are expected across portions of the Central 
Gulf Coast beginning today. Considerable flash, urban and small 
stream flooding impacts as well as new and renewed minor to isolated 
moderate river flooding are likely. 

As the system continues to lift northeast through the weekend, 
anticipate heavy rain to expand across southeastern Mississippi, 
southern and central Alabama, and central Georgia resulting in 
rainfall totals of 3 to 5 inches with isolated maximum amounts of 7 
inches. Flash, urban, small stream and isolated minor river flooding 
impacts are possible. 

The potential tropical cyclone is expected to produce 
total rainfall of 3 to 6 inches with isolated amounts of 8 
inches across the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico.  
 
STORM SURGE:  The combination of storm surge and the tide will
cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising
waters moving inland from the shoreline.  The water could reach the
following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if
the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...
 
Intracoastal City, LA to Okaloosa/Walton County Line...2-3 ft
Vermilion Bay, Lake Borgne and Mobile Bay ...2-3 ft
Lake Pontchartrain and Lake Maurepas...1-2ft
Okaloosa/Walton County Line to Panama City... 1-2 ft
Cameron, LA to Intracoastal City, LA...1-2 ft
 
Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge
and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances.  For
information specific to your area, please see products issued by
your local National Weather Service forecast office.
 
WIND:  Tropical storm conditions are expected to first reach the
coast within the warning area later today, making outside
preparations difficult or dangerous.
 
TORNADOES: The threat for a tornado or two will begin this afternoon
across coastal Louisiana, then spread overnight into Saturday across
southern portions of Louisiana, Mississippi, and Alabama, to the
western Florida Panhandle.
 
 
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 700 AM CDT.
Next complete advisory at 1000 AM CDT.
 
$$
Forecaster Blake
 

Potential Tropical Cyclone Three Forecast Advisory Number 3

Issued at 0900 UTC FRI JUN 18 2021

000
WTNT23 KNHC 180853
TCMAT3
 
POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE THREE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL032021
0900 UTC FRI JUN 18 2021
 
CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...
 
THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN EXTENDED EASTWARD FOR THE
FLORIDA PANHANDLE FROM THE ALABAMA/FLORIDA BORDER TO THE
OKALOOSA/WALTON COUNTY LINE.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* INTRACOASTAL CITY LOUISIANA TO THE OKALOOSA/WALTON COUNTY LINE.
* LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN...LAKE MAUREPAS...AND METROPOLITAN NEW ORLEANS
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 12
TO 24 HOURS.
 
INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST SHOULD MONITOR
THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.
 
POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.2N  91.5W AT 18/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  60 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT  12 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  30 KT WITH GUSTS TO  40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.2N  91.5W AT 18/0900Z
AT 18/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 24.5N  91.5W
 
FORECAST VALID 18/1800Z 27.0N  91.5W...TROPICAL CYCLONE
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT...180NE 180SE   0SW   0NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 19/0600Z 29.2N  91.2W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT...180NE 180SE   0SW   0NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 19/1800Z 31.0N  89.5W...INLAND
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT...  0NE 150SE   0SW   0NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 20/0600Z 32.6N  87.6W...INLAND
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.
 
FORECAST VALID 20/1800Z 34.5N  85.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  20 KT...GUSTS  30 KT.
 
FORECAST VALID 21/0600Z...DISSIPATED
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 25.2N  91.5W
 
INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT33 KNHC/MIATCPAT3...AT 18/1200Z
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 18/1500Z
 
$$
FORECASTER BLAKE
 
 

Potential Tropical Cyclone Three Forecast Discussion Number 3

Issued at 400 AM CDT Fri Jun 18 2021

000
WTNT43 KNHC 180855
TCDAT3
 
Potential Tropical Cyclone Three Discussion Number   3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL032021
400 AM CDT Fri Jun 18 2021

The system became a little better organized overnight at the 
northern end of its associated broad surface trough over the central 
Gulf of Mexico.  Satellite images show increasing deep convection 
along with more curvature to the low clouds, suggesting that the 
ill-defined center of this system is trying to re-form farther to 
the north. Since it still lacks a well-defined center, the system 
remains a potential tropical cyclone.  Recent scatterometer data 
indicate that winds have increased to at least 30 kt and have grown 
over a larger area on the east side of the circulation.

The initial motion is a highly uncertain 360/12.  There is fair 
agreement that this northward motion, with some re-formation of the 
center, will continue as the system remains steered by a 
subtropical ridge to the southeast.  The low should then turn 
northeastward and move across the southeastern U.S.  No 
significant changes were made to the previous track forecast and 
the guidance is in fairly good agreement. It should also be noted 
that model "spaghetti" plots are not doing a good job tracking the 
center of this system, and could give a very misleading impression 
on the forecast track if used by themselves. 

There is still a lot of shear over the Gulf of Mexico and that 
should continue through landfall.  However, the system is somewhat 
hybrid in nature and the shear shouldn't prevent its intensification 
to a tropical storm later today (possibly with subtropical 
characteristics).  Model guidance is consistent with slow 
strengthening until landfall, and the new forecast is close to the 
previous one.  After landfall, most of the global models show a 
strong band of heavy rain and tropical-storm-force winds persisting 
on the southeastern side.  The expected large distance from the 
center necessitates extending the Tropical Storm Warning into the 
northwestern Florida panhandle.  The system will likely dissipate in 
about 3 days over the southeastern United States.
 
Given the current and anticipated structure of this system, users
should not focus on the exact track of the center, as rainfall and
wind hazards are likely to extend well east of the center and arrive
well in advance of landfall.
 
Key Messages:
 
1. The system is expected to produce heavy rainfall, considerable 
flash, urban and small stream flooding beginning today and 
continuing through the weekend along the Central Gulf coast with 
flood impacts spreading northeastward into the Southern 
Appalachians.  
 
2. Tropical storm conditions are expected to begin today in areas
near and well to the east of the center along portions of the
central Gulf Coast from Intracoastal City, Louisiana, to the
Okaloosa/Walton County line, Florida, including New Orleans.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  18/0900Z 25.2N  91.5W   30 KT  35 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE
 12H  18/1800Z 27.0N  91.5W   35 KT  40 MPH...TROPICAL CYCLONE
 24H  19/0600Z 29.2N  91.2W   40 KT  45 MPH
 36H  19/1800Z 31.0N  89.5W   35 KT  40 MPH...INLAND
 48H  20/0600Z 32.6N  87.6W   25 KT  30 MPH...INLAND
 60H  20/1800Z 34.5N  85.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  21/0600Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
Forecaster Blake
 

Potential Tropical Cyclone Three Wind Speed Probabilities Number 3

Issued at 0900 UTC FRI JUN 18 2021

114 
FONT13 KNHC 180855
PWSAT3
                                                                    
POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE THREE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER   3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL032021               
0900 UTC FRI JUN 18 2021                                            
                                                                    
AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE THREE WAS LOCATED 
NEAR LATITUDE 25.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 91.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM         
SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H.                     
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   EASTERN  DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   CENTRAL  DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
                                                                    
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS                 
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...                                  
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...                                  
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...                                  
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE               
    OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)               
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        06Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY              
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                 
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
ATLANTA GA     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
PANAMA CITY FL 34  X   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
DESTIN EXEC AP 34  X   X( X)   4( 4)   1( 5)   1( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)
 
COLUMBUS GA    34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   2( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
BIRMINGHAM AL  34  X   X( X)   2( 2)   3( 5)   3( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)
 
MONTGOMERY AL  34  X   X( X)   3( 3)   5( 8)   2(10)   X(10)   X(10)
 
WHITING FLD FL 34  X   X( X)   6( 6)   4(10)   X(10)   X(10)   X(10)
 
PENSACOLA FL   34  X   X( X)   7( 7)   3(10)   X(10)   X(10)   X(10)
 
GFMX 290N 870W 34  X   1( 1)   3( 4)   1( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)
 
MOBILE AL      34  X   1( 1)  17(18)   4(22)   X(22)   X(22)   X(22)
MOBILE AL      50  X   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
GULFPORT MS    34  X   1( 1)  26(27)   2(29)   X(29)   X(29)   X(29)
GULFPORT MS    50  X   X( X)   3( 3)   1( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
STENNIS MS     34  X   3( 3)  29(32)   1(33)   X(33)   X(33)   X(33)
STENNIS MS     50  X   X( X)   4( 4)   1( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)
 
BURAS LA       34  X   6( 6)  20(26)   X(26)   X(26)   X(26)   X(26)
BURAS LA       50  X   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
GFMX 280N 890W 34  1   4( 5)   3( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)
 
JACKSON MS     34  X   X( X)   5( 5)   1( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)
 
NEW ORLEANS LA 34  X  10(10)  27(37)   X(37)   X(37)   X(37)   X(37)
NEW ORLEANS LA 50  X   X( X)   5( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)
 
GFMX 280N 910W 34  9  35(44)   1(45)   X(45)   X(45)   X(45)   X(45)
GFMX 280N 910W 50  X   5( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)
 
BATON ROUGE LA 34  X   5( 5)  15(20)   X(20)   X(20)   X(20)   X(20)
 
MORGAN CITY LA 34  X  13(13)  16(29)   X(29)   X(29)   X(29)   X(29)
MORGAN CITY LA 50  X   1( 1)   2( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
LAFAYETTE LA   34  X   3( 3)   5( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)
 
NEW IBERIA LA  34  X   6( 6)   7(13)   X(13)   X(13)   X(13)   X(13)
 
GFMX 280N 930W 34  1   3( 4)   1( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)
 
CAMERON LA     34  X   2( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER BLAKE                                                    

Potential Tropical Cyclone Three Graphics

Potential Tropical Cyclone Three 5-Day Uncertainty Track Image
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 18 Jun 2021 08:56:05 GMT

Potential Tropical Cyclone Three 34-Knot Wind Speed Probabilities
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 18 Jun 2021 08:56:05 GMT

Local Statement for New Orleans / Baton Rouge, LA

Issued at 1000 PM CDT Thu Jun 17 2021

Local Statement for Lake Charles, LA

Issued at 1028 PM CDT Thu Jun 17 2021

Local Statement for Mobile, AL / Pensacola, FL

Issued at 1100 PM CDT Thu Jun 17 2021

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