000 WTNT31 KNHC 120232 TCPAT1 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Eleven Advisory Number 2 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL112020 1100 PM AST Tue Aug 11 2020 ...DEPRESSION FORECAST TO GRADUALLY STRENGTHEN... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...12.0N 41.5W ABOUT 1205 MI...1940 KM W OF THE CABO VERDE ISLANDS ABOUT 1350 MI...2170 KM E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Eleven was located near latitude 12.0 North, longitude 41.5 West. The depression is moving toward the west near 14 mph (22 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue through Wednesday. A west-northwestward motion at a similar forward speed is forecast to begin Wednesday night and continue through the rest of the week. Maximum sustained winds remain near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Some strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours, and the depression is expected to become a tropical storm by Wednesday night. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1008 mb (29.77 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Blake
000 WTNT21 KNHC 120231 TCMAT1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112020 0300 UTC WED AUG 12 2020 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.0N 41.5W AT 12/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 12 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1008 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.0N 41.5W AT 12/0300Z AT 12/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 11.9N 40.9W FORECAST VALID 12/1200Z 12.3N 43.4W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 13/0000Z 12.8N 45.9W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 13/1200Z 13.5N 48.3W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 20SE 0SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 14/0000Z 14.5N 50.8W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 14/1200Z 15.7N 53.3W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 50NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 15/0000Z 17.0N 55.7W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 16/0000Z 19.5N 60.5W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 17/0000Z 22.0N 65.0W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 12.0N 41.5W NEXT ADVISORY AT 12/0900Z $$ FORECASTER BLAKE
913 WTNT41 KNHC 120233 TCDAT1 Tropical Depression Eleven Discussion Number 2 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL112020 1100 PM AST Tue Aug 11 2020 After weakening in the early evening hours, deep convection has returned to the western semicircle of the tropical cyclone. While this is quite a strong burst, it appears that the convective pattern is indicative of the shear it is encountering, rather than any strengthening. This is confirmed by ASCAT-B data from a few hours ago, which supported maintaining an initial wind speed of 30 kt. By this time tomorrow, the depression is forecast to become a tropical storm due to decreasing vertical wind shear, and this environmental change should also keep some of the surrounding mid-level dry air from mixing near the center. Gradually warming SSTs and relatively low shear conditions suggest further intensification through about 2-3 days. Thereafter, increasing southwesterly shear while the small cyclone moves through fairly dry air aloft is forecast to cause a weakening trend, and it wouldn't be surprising if the cyclone even degenerates to a trough by day 5 as it traverses the hostile environment. The new NHC wind speed prediction is near but slightly higher than the previous advisory through 60h, similar afterwards, and lies near the NOAA corrected-consensus mean. The depression continues moving westward, or 280/12 kt, to the south of a large mid-tropospheric high centered over the central Atlantic. A break developing in the ridge should steer the depression more west-northwestward from 36 hours until the end of the forecast period. For a second advisory, the track models are in remarkably good agreement, and the forecast is near or northeast of the model consensus. The HWRF solution that takes the cyclone near the Leeward Islands is considering less likely at this time, hence the official forecast is shaded toward the other model solutions. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 12/0300Z 12.0N 41.5W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 12/1200Z 12.3N 43.4W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 13/0000Z 12.8N 45.9W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 13/1200Z 13.5N 48.3W 40 KT 45 MPH 48H 14/0000Z 14.5N 50.8W 45 KT 50 MPH 60H 14/1200Z 15.7N 53.3W 50 KT 60 MPH 72H 15/0000Z 17.0N 55.7W 45 KT 50 MPH 96H 16/0000Z 19.5N 60.5W 40 KT 45 MPH 120H 17/0000Z 22.0N 65.0W 35 KT 40 MPH $$ Forecaster Blake
000 FONT11 KNHC 120232 PWSAT1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112020 0300 UTC WED AUG 12 2020 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 12.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 41.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT SAINT THOMAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) SAINT MAARTEN 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) SABA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) ST EUSTATIUS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) ST KITTS-NEVIS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) BARBUDA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 2( 6) ANTIGUA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) $$ FORECASTER BLAKE
COPYRIGHT ©1995-2020 JONATHAN EDWARDS. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED. PORTIONS COPYRIGHT THEIR RESPECTIVE OWNERS. REPUBLICATION OR REDISTRIBUTION OF CYCLOSTORM CONTENT, INCLUDING BY FRAMING OR SIMILAR MEANS, IS EXPRESSLY PROHIBITED WITHOUT THE PRIOR WRITTEN CONSENT OF JONATHAN EDWARDS. THE CYCLOSTORM LOGO AND THE WORDS "WATCHING THE HURRICANE ZONE" IS A TRADE MARK OF JONATHAN EDWARDS. JONATHAN EDWARDS SHALL NOT BE LIABLE FOR ANY ERRORS OR DELAYS IN CONTENT, OR FOR ANY ACTIONS TAKEN IN RELIANCE THEREON.