WTPN32 PGTW 280900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TYPHOON 21W (MOLAVE) WARNING NR 018//
RMKS/
1. TYPHOON 21W (MOLAVE) WARNING NR 018    
   02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   280600Z --- NEAR 15.4N 108.5E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 290 DEGREES AT 14 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF 
     SATELLITE AND SYNOPTIC DATA
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 15.4N 108.5E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   281800Z --- 15.9N 105.8E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 13 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   290600Z --- 16.4N 103.1E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
    ---
REMARKS:
280900Z POSITION NEAR 15.5N 107.8E.
28OCT20. TYPHOON (TY) 21W (MOLAVE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 38 NM 
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF DA NANG, VIETNAM, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD 
AT 14 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL 
SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS MADE LANDFALL AND HAS 
BEGUN TO  DETERIORATE. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH FAIR 
CONFIDENCE BASED ON A REMNANT EYE FEATURE IN THE MSI AND 
CORROBORATED BY TRIANGULATION OF SURFACE WIND OBSERVATIONS, 
INCLUDING ONE FROM DA NANG AIRPORT. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 70KTS 
IS EXTRAPOLATED FROM AGENCY DVORAK ESTIMATES PRIOR TO LANDFALL AND 
CONSISTENT WITH MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE OBSERVATIONS. UPPER 
LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES INCREASED (30KT+) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. 
THIS, PLUS INTERACTION WITH THE RUGGED TERRAIN WILL RAPIDLY ERODE 
THE SYSTEM AS IT DRAGS ACROSS VIETNAM, LAOS, AND INTO THAILAND, 
LEADING TO DISSIPATION BY TAU 24. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS 
SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI. THE SYSTEM WILL 
BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION. REFER TO TROPICAL 
DEPRESSION 22W (TWENTYTWO) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY 
UPDATES.//
NNNN

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WTPN52 PGTW 280900    
WARNING    ATCG MIL 21W NWP 201028072248
2020102806 21W MOLAVE     018  02 290 14 SATL SYNP 020
T000 154N 1085E 070 R064 020 NE QD 000 SE QD 000 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 055 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 130 NE QD 110 SE QD 050 SW QD 090 NW QD 
T012 159N 1058E 035 R034 100 NE QD 070 SE QD 050 SW QD 110 NW QD 
T024 164N 1031E 020 
AMP
    012HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
    024HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
SUBJ:  TYPHOON 21W (MOLAVE) WARNING NR 018    
1. TYPHOON 21W (MOLAVE) WARNING NR 018    
   02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   280600Z --- NEAR 15.4N 108.5E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 290 DEGREES AT 14 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF 
     SATELLITE AND SYNOPTIC DATA
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 15.4N 108.5E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   281800Z --- 15.9N 105.8E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 13 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   290600Z --- 16.4N 103.1E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
    ---
REMARKS:
280900Z POSITION NEAR 15.5N 107.8E.
28OCT20. TYPHOON (TY) 21W (MOLAVE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 38 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHEAST OF DA NANG, VIETNAM, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 14 
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS 
SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON
WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI. THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR
SIGNS OF REGENERATION.
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
//
2120102100  73N1404E  15
2120102106  74N1397E  15
2120102112  78N1390E  15
2120102118  83N1383E  15
2120102200  88N1378E  20
2120102206  95N1374E  20
2120102212 102N1369E  20
2120102218 106N1357E  20
2120102300 107N1343E  20
2120102306 107N1339E  20
2120102312 112N1332E  20
2120102318 116N1325E  20
2120102400 125N1311E  30
2120102406 131N1301E  30
2120102412 134N1289E  35
2120102418 134N1277E  40
2120102500 134N1263E  55
2120102500 134N1263E  55
2120102506 134N1249E  65
2120102506 134N1249E  65
2120102512 133N1235E  70
2120102512 133N1235E  70
2120102512 133N1235E  70
2120102518 132N1218E  80
2120102518 132N1218E  80
2120102518 132N1218E  80
2120102600 131N1204E  80
2120102600 131N1204E  80
2120102600 131N1204E  80
2120102606 134N1189E  80
2120102606 134N1189E  80
2120102606 134N1189E  80
2120102612 132N1177E  90
2120102612 132N1177E  90
2120102612 132N1177E  90
2120102618 132N1159E  90
2120102618 132N1159E  90
2120102618 132N1159E  90
2120102700 133N1147E 100
2120102700 133N1147E 100
2120102700 133N1147E 100
2120102706 135N1134E 100
2120102706 135N1134E 100
2120102706 135N1134E 100
2120102712 139N1119E 105
2120102712 139N1119E 105
2120102712 139N1119E 105
2120102718 142N1113E 100
2120102718 142N1113E 100
2120102718 142N1113E 100
2120102800 149N1098E  90
2120102800 149N1098E  90
2120102800 149N1098E  90
2120102806 154N1085E  70
2120102806 154N1085E  70
2120102806 154N1085E  70
NNNN

WTPN31 PGTW 281500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL STORM 22W (TWENTYTWO) WARNING NR 003//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 22W (TWENTYTWO) WARNING NR 003    
   UPGRADED FROM TROPICAL DEPRESSION 22W
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   281200Z --- NEAR 16.6N 138.7E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 16.6N 138.7E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   290000Z --- 16.5N 136.6E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 10 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   291200Z --- 16.3N 134.5E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 10 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   300000Z --- 15.8N 132.5E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 09 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   301200Z --- 15.3N 130.7E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 09 KTS
    ---
   72 HRS, VALID AT:
   311200Z --- 14.1N 127.0E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 11 KTS
    ---
   LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
    ---
   96 HRS, VALID AT:
   011200Z --- 14.7N 122.6E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 12 KTS
    ---
   120 HRS, VALID AT:
   021200Z --- 16.1N 117.8E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
    ---
REMARKS:
281500Z POSITION NEAR 16.6N 138.2E.
28OCT20. TROPICAL STORM 22W (TWENTYTWO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 1030 
NM EAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS 
OVER  THE PAST SIX HOURS. UPGRADED FROM TROPICAL DEPRESSION. MAXIMUM 
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 281200Z IS 14 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 
282100Z, 290300Z, 290900Z AND 291500Z.//
NNNN

WDPN31 PGTW 281500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 22W (TWENTY-TWO) WARNING NR 003//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   TROPICAL STORM (TS) 22W (TWENTYTWO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 1030
NM EAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS
A COMPACT, CONSOLIDATING SYSTEM WITH DEEPENING CENTRAL CONVECTION, 
ALBEIT WITH MINIMAL RAIN BANDS. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH 
FAIR CONFIDENCE BASED ON LOW CLOUD TRACING INTO AN OBSCURED LOW LEVEL 
CIRCULATION (LLC) IN THE MSI LOOP THAT LINED UP WELL WITH A NOTCH 
FEATURE IN THE 2800859Z SSMIS MICROWAVE IMAGE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY 
OF 35KTS IS BASED ON THE HIGH END OF MULTI-AGENCY DVORAK ESTIMATES OF 
T1.5/25KTS TO T2.5/35KTS, AND EXTRAPOLATED FROM A RECENT SATCON 
ESTIMATE OF 32KTS AND IS CONSISTENT WITH THE IMPROVED CONSOLIDATION 
OVER THE LAST 6HRS. TS 22W IS TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY
OF A DEEP-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE NORTH OVER 
WARM (29-30C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SST) IN THE PHILIPPINE SEA 
AND UNDER LOW (5-10KT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) AND GOOD RADIAL 
OUTFLOW. A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR CONTINUED DEVELOPMENT. 
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY FROM 
THE LAST PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
   B. TS 22W WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK WESTWARD THROUGH TAU 12, THEN 
WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AS THE STR BUILDS, AND BY TAU 72, WILL BE 
APPROXIMATELY 345NM EAST OF MANILA. THE AFOREMENTIONED FAVORABLE 
CONDITIONS WILL PROMOTE GRADUAL INTENSIFICATION UP TO TAU 48, THEN 
RAPID INTENSIFICATION TO A PEAK OF 105KTS BY TAU 72 AS IT DRIFTS OVER
A WARMER (31C+ SST) POOL OF WATER IN THE PHILIPPINE SEA.
   C. AFTER TAU 72, THE SYSTEM WILL TRACK MORE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD 
AS THE STR WEAKENS SLIGHTLY WITH THE APPROACH OF A MINOR SHORTWAVE 
TROUGH FROM THE NORTHWEST, MAKING LANDFALL OVER CENTRAL LUZON, 
PHILIPPINES, AROUND TAU 102, THEN EXIT INTO THE SOUTH CHINA SEA BY 
TAU 108. INTERACTION WITH THE RUGGED TERRAIN IN ADDITION TO INCREASED 
VWS (20KTS), WILL LEAD TO A WEAKENING DOWN TO 55 KTS BY TAU 120.  
NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN TIGHT AGREEMENT WITH NAVGEM THE SOLE 
RIGHT-OF-TRACK OUTLIER, LENDING AN OVERALL HIGH CONFIDENCE IN ALL 
PORTIONS OF THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK WHICH IS LAID SLIGHTLY LEFT OF 
THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS.//
NNNN

WTPN51 PGTW 281500    
WARNING    ATCG MIL 22W NWP 201028124840
2020102812 22W TWENTYTWO  003  01 270 08 SATL 025
T000 166N 1387E 035 R034 030 NE QD 020 SE QD 015 SW QD 035 NW QD 
T012 165N 1366E 040 R034 090 NE QD 020 SE QD 000 SW QD 050 NW QD 
T024 163N 1345E 050 R050 020 NE QD 010 SE QD 000 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 090 NE QD 020 SE QD 010 SW QD 060 NW QD 
T036 158N 1325E 065 R050 020 NE QD 010 SE QD 010 SW QD 020 NW QD R034 070 NE QD 020 SE QD 020 SW QD 050 NW QD 
T048 153N 1307E 080 R064 010 NE QD 000 SE QD 010 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 030 NE QD 010 SE QD 020 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 070 NE QD 040 SE QD 040 SW QD 080 NW QD 
T072 141N 1270E 105 R064 020 NE QD 000 SE QD 010 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 030 NE QD 020 SE QD 020 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 100 NE QD 050 SE QD 050 SW QD 100 NW QD 
T096 147N 1226E 080 R064 010 NE QD 010 SE QD 010 SW QD 010 NW QD R050 030 NE QD 020 SE QD 020 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 090 NE QD 050 SE QD 040 SW QD 100 NW QD 
T120 161N 1178E 055 R050 080 NE QD 000 SE QD 000 SW QD 070 NW QD R034 110 NE QD 020 SE QD 040 SW QD 090 NW QD 
AMP
SUBJ:  TROPICAL STORM 22W (TWENTYTWO) WARNING NR 003    
1. TROPICAL STORM 22W (TWENTYTWO) WARNING NR 003    
   UPGRADED FROM TROPICAL DEPRESSION 22W
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   281200Z --- NEAR 16.6N 138.7E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 16.6N 138.7E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   290000Z --- 16.5N 136.6E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 10 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   291200Z --- 16.3N 134.5E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 10 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   300000Z --- 15.8N 132.5E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 09 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   301200Z --- 15.3N 130.7E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 09 KTS
    ---
   72 HRS, VALID AT:
   311200Z --- 14.1N 127.0E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 11 KTS
    ---
   LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
    ---
   96 HRS, VALID AT:
   011200Z --- 14.7N 122.6E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 12 KTS
    ---
   120 HRS, VALID AT:
   021200Z --- 16.1N 117.8E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
    ---
REMARKS:
281500Z POSITION NEAR 16.6N 138.2E.
28OCT20. TROPICAL STORM 22W (TWENTYTWO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 1030 
NM EAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS 
OVER  THE PAST SIX HOURS. UPGRADED FROM TROPICAL DEPRESSION. MAXIMUM 
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 281200Z IS 14 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 
282100Z, 290300Z, 290900Z AND 291500Z.//
2220102506 112N1444E  15
2220102512 114N1436E  15
2220102518 117N1431E  15
2220102600 124N1427E  15
2220102606 134N1424E  15
2220102612 145N1420E  20
2220102618 150N1418E  20
2220102700 154N1418E  20
2220102706 158N1414E  20
2220102712 163N1410E  20
2220102718 165N1407E  20
2220102800 166N1401E  25
2220102806 166N1395E  30
2220102812 166N1387E  35
NNNN